Tuesday, January 24, 2012

UPSC CIVIL SERVICES MAINS EXAM SOLVED PAPER 2011

General Studies Paper – II

1. Answer any two of the following in about 250 words each:      20×2= 40
(a) List the Central Asian Republics and identify those of particular strategic and economic importance to India. Examine the opportunities and bottlenecks in enhancing relations with these countries.

Answer:
Central Asian Republics include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, Although all of them are important for India from the perspective of trade, security, energy security, civilisational link, but the ones particularly important are Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.

Kazakhstan is one of the fastest growing economies of Central Asia and a politically stable nation. India has signed civil nuclear agreement with Kazakhstan and agreed to give India a foothold in the oil rich Caspian through Satapayev block. Central Asian republics are important to India for its energy security (vast reserves of oil, gas and radioactive material), a potential market for its growing trade, strategically vital to safeguard India’s interest in Central Asia, West Asia and Africa. TAPI gas pipeline agreement signed recently involving Turkmenistan promises to address some of India’s energy needs through supply of natural gas. Central Asian Republic are also potential markets for export of Indian pharmaceuticals, IT services, entertainment services etc.

These nation are also part of regional groupings like SCO which will play crucial role in regional stability and prosperity in Asia and hence in the world.

On the flip side of it, some of these nations are not politically stable, lack vibrant democracy, and are marred by ethnic clashes which make it difficult for the businesses to operate. Lack of infrastructure and land connectivity also places obstacles in the smooth business activity. The same product that would take more than a month to reach these nations from India can be obtained within a week from China, Turkey or Europe. Terrorism emanating from the Central Asian region like from Fergana valley is another area of concern and challenge for India.
  
(b) Critically examine the security and strategic implications of the so-called ‘string of pearls’ theory for India.

Answer:
String of pearls theory refers to China building deep water ports in the Indian Ocean like Gwadar (Pakistan), Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Sittwe(Mayanmar), Chittagong (Bangladesh)  as a part of the strategy to encircle India. China denies this and claims that it is not directed against any nation. It is rather for securing its energy supplies and sea routes for its trade.

Several western analysts including some Indian Defence analyst think otherwise and claim that it is part of China’s strategy to contain India in the event of any future conflict. India is surrounded by sea from three sides and a naval dominance of China or any other nation in Indian Ocean is certainly a security concern for India. String of pearls makes China India’s maritime neighbour and give the opportunity to China to have a two front situation against India in case of a conflict.

Strategically China’s growing indulgence with India’s neighbours like Sri Lanka or Bangladesh through these ports gives China an extra lever to use against India. It can be used both as soft and a hard power to gain strategic depth inside India’s neighbourhood.
India’s rise on the world stage is guided mostly by its economic might in terms of its rising GDP and share in world trade which depends largely on the sea routes through which the trade is conducted. Any dominance on the sea routes can be used against India’s growth and thus requires India to take cognizance of the String of Pearls strategy by china.  

(c) “Compared to the South Asian Trade Area (SAFTA), the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation Free Trade Area (BIMSTEC FTA) seems to be more promising.” Critically evaluate.

Answer:
BIMSTEC was initiated with the goal to combine the 'Look West' policy of Thailand and ASEAN with the 'Look East' policy of India and South Asia. So it could be explained that BIMSTEC is a link between ASEAN and SAARC. BIMSTEC provides a unique link between South Asia and Southeast Asia bringing together 1.3 billion people - 21 percent of the world population.

Compared to south Asian free trade area (SAFTA), the BIMSTEC FTA seems to be more promising. A deeper economic integration process within South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) sometime suffers because of political tension between India and Pakistan. Such things are less likely to happen in case of BIMSTEC. It is believed that negotiation under the BIMSTEC umbrella will be easier than under SAFTA because all the BIMSTEC members are purely guided by economic interests rather than by political interests. Many countries in SAFTA have less favorable geographical location in terms of being land locked and thus have adverse affect on trade as compared to BIMSTEC nations. BIMSTEC being a link between South Asia and South East Asia also opens up vast opportunities for trade as compared to SAFTA which is limited to mainly South Asia.

When compared in terms of their economic structure, namely, value addition of services, industry, and agriculture sector, to gross domestic product (GDP), BIMSTEC nations have many similarities. Except in case of Thailand, the industrial sector constitutes roughly a fourth of GDP in all countries. All these economies are predominantly associated with service related activities. Although majority of the population still lives in rural areas, all of these nations are becoming increasingly urbanised. Geographical proximity along with similar economic profile indicates complementarities in consumption, production, and trading pattern. All these factors make BIMSTEC FTA more promising.


2. Answer any three of the following in about 150 words each:     15×3=36
(a) Subsequent to the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) waiver in 2008, what are the agreements on nuclear energy that India has signed with different countries?

Answer:
Subsequent to NSG waiver India has signed Civil Nuclear Cooperation with nine nations and South Korea is the latest in the list. The NSG waiver ended nuclear apartheid of almost three decades for India where world declined to share any nuclear technology and resources with India even for non military purposes.

India has also incorporated enrichment and reprocessing agreements with several nations like Russia and France after the NSG waiver. Countries have guaranteed fuel supply to Indian nuclear reactors which were running much below their capacity due to lack of nuclear fuel.

India has also passed legislation on nuclear liabilities and is progressing towards ratifying Convention for Supplementary Convention which will bring India in line with the international regime and facilitate nuclear suppliers of other nations to do business with India.

(b) Trace the progress of India’s efforts for a joint counter-terrorism strategy with China. What are the likely implications of the recent Xinjiang violence on these efforts?

Answer:
India and China have completed two rounds of joint anti terrorism exercise in 2007 and 2008. Although the symbolic importance of these exercises is immense, both countries could explore cooperation in preventive measures particularly intelligence sharing; and hotline for critical situations to tackle the menace of terrorism. The two sides could consider maximizing their cooperation in the field of counter-terrorism and further consolidating strategic partnership between the two.
China’s Xinjiang problem is connected with the network of cross border and transnational terrorism. Xinjiang is a case in point of the ethno-religious separatist problem in the Xinjiang region.

Even after having such immense opportunities, India and China defense cooperation has been stalled due Chinese policy of stapled visa or denial of visa for Indian army officers from Jammu and Kashmir region and the state of Arunachal Pradesh.

(c) Bring out the importance of the Small and Medium Enterprises Expo and Conference held in Dubai last year for Indian business.
Answer:
The 2010 SME Conference theme was Meet, discuss, start. Last year’s conference was designed to provide information and assistance to all sizes of small businesses, as well as to those from the government who work with them. The conference created opportunities for small business owners and entrepreneurs to network, build alliances, and learn about new products, services and trends. Relevant educational presentations provided participants with new strategies and tools that can be put into action.

The conference was important for Indian business because of following reasons
• Opportunities for SME
• Strategies to boost the business environment for SMEs
• Investments and financing SME growth
• Banking and financial service innovations for SMEs
• Technologies that can help SME growth
• Women Entrepreneur

Small and Medium Enterprises Expo and Conference, offered great platform to small units to promote their brands, products and services, as well as to explore business opportunities in the Middle East and North African markets.

Besides giving a major impetus to networking activities with other visiting countries such as Pakistan, Mauritius, Nigeria and Vietnam, the event offered Indian SMEs the opportunity to acquaint themselves with the latest technologies in their industries and form alliances with international clients. Indian SMEs from sectors such as plastic, petrochemicals, garments and textiles, and art and handicrafts, among others gained from the participation at the expo.
(d) What are the salient features of the political and economic relationship between India and South Africa?

Answer:
South Africa has emerged as an important ally for India in recent times. Apart from having civilisational links and India’s close support during the apartheid movement and Mahatma Gandhi’s proximity with the cause South Africa is also a symbol of India’s engagement with the African people and society.

India and South Africa are part of IBSA and BRICS. IBSA represents south-south alliance while BRICS is concerned more with the economic cooperation among the member states. India and South Africa have given coordinated response in G20 and WTO. South Africa is an important destination for investment by the Inidan Business Community and a joint CEOs forum has been set up between the two nations to deepen economic cooperation and raise the level of bilateral trade.

The two nations have demanded reforms of the international institutions, given coordinated responses in the climate change negotiations with the developed nations. They coordinated and put a joint stand on the issue of Syria which provided a third alternative or a middle path in dealing with such issues of international intervention. The two nations also have a shared understanding of Iran’s nuclear issue.
    
3. Answer either of the following in about 250 words:    20
(a) “The causes and implications of the Jasmine Revolution and its spread are as much economic in nature as they are political.” Critically evaluate.

Answer:
The region of West Asia and North Africa is in a state of flux and going through a turbulent phase. The ripples that started in Tunisia from Jasmine revolution has spread far and wide. Many regimes like in Egypt and Libya have fallen since then while some have been truly shaken like in Syria, Behrain and Yemen.

The region shares some common economic and political characteristics that have resulted in this. These regimes have been more or less dictatorial in nature, giving minimum or no political liberties to its citizens. The freedom of speech, expression and movement has been restricted in past with no credible democracy. Elections were often rigged and constitutions manipulated to suit the ruling elite. The growing reach of media and social networking sites on the other hand opened the window for their people to peep into the outside free world. This raised their expectations from their own rulers and also provided a platform to organise protests against the regimes. Underlying ethnic and sect tensions against the regimes have also added fuel to the fire.

Economic reasons like high rate of unemployment among youth as in case of Tunisia, and low per capita income have also resulted in these revolts. The rulers in these nations have indulged in lavish life style and amassed treasures while the fellow citizens were starving and struggling with poor education, health and public utilities system. None of these nations had any proper higher education system which could ensure respectable jobs to its youth. Many countries like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have distributed cash and benefits among its citizens since the start of Jasmine revolution but that does not address the systemic reforms that the people these nations are demanding.
        
(b) In the context of the ‘Euro-zone’ debt crisis, examine the proposed ‘six-pack’ solution. Do you think that this has a better chance of success than the earlier stability and growth pact?

Answer:
The six pack solution has been proposed for Euro Zone debt crisis which threatens to drag the world economy along with it into yet another full blown crisis. It is a set of legislative measures that gives European Commission the ability to impose sanctions on the eurozone countries that fail to control their debt and deficit. The rules are designed to prevent any future debt crisis of the present nature and thus give more sanctioning power to European Commission.

The European parliament will have the right to call finance ministers from countries that have been warned to hearings, while the European semester provides for the annual assessment of national budgets. Falsified debt and deficit statistics can lead to a fine of 0.2 per cent of gross domestic product. And countries will be obliged to act pre-emptively to maintain the health of economies threatened by imbalances such as a housing-bubble.

The legislation would discourage member states from evading their responsibilities to each other to ensure the stability of the eurozone. The rules would provide for enhanced monitoring and surveillance of imbalances like unemployment, credit growth and housing bubble etc. This would also give right signals to the financial markets about the seriousness of the EU and its resolve to handle any future debt crisis.

4. Answer any four of the following in about 150 words each:     12×4=48
(a) “As regards the increasing rates of melting of Arctic Sea ice, the interests of the Arctic Council nations may not coincide with those of the wider world”. Explain.

Answer:
The climate change has increased the rate of melting of the Arctic Sea Ice. This has increased the access of earlier hidden oil and gas resources. Many Arctic countries like Russia, Denmark, Canada and Iceland have rushed to claim their sovereignty over these resources. They see the climate change as an opportunity to exploit these hidden resources. They also provide new opportunities for fishing and shipping. 

Wider world on the other hand is concerned about the increasing rate of melting of Arctic Ice as this can threaten existence of some species, disturb the water and ocean cycle, adversely affect global average temperature, and can also lead to loosing climate history stored in these ice sheets. This is a ecologically sensitive area and highly unregulated thus causes concerns for the world at large.
   
(b) Is there still a role for the concept of balance of power in contemporary international politics? Discuss.

Answer:
The balance of power in the contemporary international politics can be used not only in terms of one super power balancing the other or regional balance of power but also the balance between hard and soft power. The disintegration of USSR tilted the balance of power in favour of America but economic rise of China has started to threaten the numero uno position of USA.

Several example of balance of power in international politics is seen. USA uses Israel as a tool to balance power in West Asia. NAM during the cold war era was used by developing countries to balance the relationship between two superpowers. The doctrine that neighbour’s neighbour is a friend is seen in several situations like China having all weather friendship with Pakistan to balance India. Chinese allege that USA is using its neighbours to contain the rise of China.

The growing economic prowess of emerging economies like India, China, Brazil and South Africa is being used in international forums like G20 or WTO to balance the developed nations. Thus the concept is very much alive even though it might have weakened a bit in the interconnected globalized world with supra national organisations like United Nations playing a key role in international politics.      
(c) “Strategic interests seem to be replacing commercial interests for the host country with regard to Cam Ranh bay.” Amplify.

Answer:
Vietnam opened its Cam Ranh Bay after eight years of its closure. The bay is in the northeast of Ho Chi Minh City. It is one of the best deepwater shelters in Southeast Asia. Ships can stop here for refuelling or repair. It enjoys a geo strategic significance as it is located near to key shipping lanes in the South China Sea. China’s aggressive policy in the South China Sea also led to this decision by Vietnam.

The Bay has been strategically crucial for great powers like Russia, Japan, France and USA in the history. Vietnam had not opened it after Russian withdrawal in 2002 but the recent claims by China seems to have led Vietnam to take this step. Opening of the Bay for the navies of many nations will indirectly strengthen Vietnam’s claim and right in the South China Sea and weaken Chinese position. 

(d) To what extent has the withdrawal of al-Shabab from Mogadishu given peace a real chance in Somalia? Assess.

Answer:
Al-Shabab has withdrawn from most parts of the capital of Somalia but its fighters still control some areas, including Deynile. The Islamist group withdrew after a government offensive to retake the city and clear the way for foreign aid destined for drought and famine victims. African Union troops has helped push back the rebels.

Al-Shabab once controlled nearly all of Mogadishu and still controls large swaths of central and southern Somalia. The group has tightly controlled the delivery of aid to famine victims in its territory, and has banned access for many international aid agencies. Thus its withdrawal provides real opportunity for peace but it also depends on how this opportunity is utilised by the Somalis government.

Al-Shabab on the other hand has claimed that the retreat was a strategic move and it will remain nearby and continue its effort to topple the United Nations-backed government.

(e) On a Formula-one (F-1) racing car track, information to drivers is generally signalled through the standardized use of flags of different colours. Describe the meaning associated with any six of the flags listed below:
(i) White Flag

Answer:
When the white flag is waved by the race marshals, it means the drivers should immediately slow down, as it indicates the presence of a safety car, ambulance or towing truck ahead, on the track. In this situation, overtaking is strictly prohibited.

(ii) Black Flag

Answer:
Once a race marshal waves the black flag and it attaches the race number to the car to it that means the driver is disqualified for the ongoing race. After seeing the black flag, a driver must enter the pits within the next lap and report immediately to the Clerk of the Course.

(iii) Yellow Flag

Answer:
Indicates danger ahead and overtaking is prohibited. A single waved yellow flag means slow down, a double waved yellow warns that the driver must be prepared to stop if necessary.

(iv) Blue Flag

Answer:
Shown to a driver to indicate that a faster car is behind him and trying to overtake. Shown both to lapped cars and those racing. A lapped car must allow the faster car past after seeing a maximum of three blue flags or risk being penalised.

(v) Black and White Flag divided diagonally
Answer:
Shown with car number to indicate a warning for unsportsmanlike behaviour. A black flag may follow if the driver takes no heed of the warning.

(vi) Chequered Flag

Answer:
This shows that the race has ended. Shown first to the winner, and then to every car to cross the line behind them.
(vii) Yellow and Red Striped Flag

Answer:
The track is slippery. This usually warns of oil or water on the track.

5. Comment on any thirteen of the following in about 50 words each:    5×13=65
(a) International Year of Chemistry

Answer: 
The United Nations declared 2011 to be the International Year of Chemistry. The year 2011 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the International Association of Chemical Societies, as well as the year Madame Marie Curie won the Nobel Prize – which celebrates the contributions of women to science. The Year hopes to promote the appreciation of chemistry in meeting world needs and the future development of chemistry.

(b) The scourge of e-waste

Answer:
e-waste constitutes of used, obsolete, and end of life cycle electronics product which if disposed in an unscientific manner can lead to pollution of air, water and soil. Acid bath, land fill and burning are used for the disposal of e-waste leading to pollution through heavy metals (like cadmium, mercury, and nickel) poly vinyl chloride and poly chlorinated biphenyl. e-waste is from developed countries is being dumped to developing countries causing large scale health hazards.       
(c) Designer poultry eggs
Answer:
Designer eggs are for beauty conscious consumers, as well as persons affected with diabetes and heart-disease. It will be bacteria-free, rich in protein and high on calorific value. The designer eggs are produced through a scientific method adopted for nurturing the layer with the right feed so that they lay high quality eggs. The composition of the feed leads to the desired composition of the eggs.

(d) INSPIRE programme of the Department of Science and Technology

Answer:
Innovation in Science Pursuit for Inspired Research (INSPIRE)" is an innovative programme sponsored and managed by the Department of Science & Technology for attraction of talent to Science. The basic objective of INSPIRE is to communicate to the youth of the country the excitements of creative pursuit of science, attract talent to the study of science at an early age and thus build the required critical human resource pool for strengthening and expanding the Science & Technology system and R&D base.

(e) The Kessler syndrome with reference to space debris
Answer:
The Kessler Syndrome is a future scenario when the amount of space junk reaches a high enough density that each collision will produce sufficient fragments that generate a slow cascade effect; producing more collisions and debris, eventually causing our species to become incapable of launching space craft. It was first proposed in 1978 by Donald J. Kessler when debris that accumulates in space is increasing faster than what debris falls out of orbit and burns up.

(f) Omega-3 fatty acids in our food

Answer:
Omega-3 fatty acids are polyunsaturated fats found naturally in oily fish, nuts, seeds, and leafy green vegetables. Omega-3 fatty acids are thought to protect against heart disease, inflammation, and certain types of cancer, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and macular degeneration (a leading cause of vision loss). Omega-3 fatty acids are critical for proper brain development and neurological function in developing babies, too.

(g) Difference between ‘spin-drying’ and ‘tumble-drying’ technology with reference to drying of washed clothes

Answer:
Spin drying technology for drying washed clothes saves time as the high speed and RPM (revolutions per minute) allows the clothes to get rid of water quickly due to centrifugal force. Tumble drying technology on the other hand works mainly on the heated air being passed through the clothes to dry them up. Heat and not spinning speed is used to dry the clothes through this technology.

(h) The admonishing population of vultures

Answer:
The vulture population has been declining which was a cause of concern. Use of diclofenac with the cattle population is partly responsible for this decline. Bombay Natural History Society has taken up conservation and awareness efforts which have positively impacted the vulture population. Vulture breeding centres are set up in Pinjore(Haryana), Rani forest (Assam) to arrest the declining population. The slender billed, white backed vultures are among the endangered species.

(i) ‘Arsenic-bug’ and the significance of its discovery

Answer:
NASA-supported researchers have discovered the first known microorganism on Earth able to thrive and reproduce using the toxic chemical arsenic. The microorganism, which lives in California's Mono Lake, substitutes arsenic for phosphorus in the backbone of its DNA and other cellular components. Carbon, hydrogen, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus and sulfur are the six basic building blocks of all known forms of life on Earth. This finding will alter biology textbooks and expand the scope of the search for life beyond Earth.

(j) F-22 ‘Raptor’ aircraft

Answer:
Developed by Lockheed Martin/Boeing, the F-22A Raptor is a supersonic, dual-engine fighter jet. The F-22 is designed for stealth, supercruise speed and super-agility.

It is a fifth generation aircraft. . It has additional capabilities that include ground attack, electronic warfare, and signals intelligence roles. It lost the Indian bid to Eurofighter and French Rafale recently.

(k) ‘Concentrated’ solar energy and’ photovoltaic’ solar energy

Answer:
Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies use mirrors to reflect and concentrate sunlight onto receivers that collect the solar energy and convert it to heat. This thermal energy can then be used to produce electricity via a steam turbine or heat engine driving a generator.Photovoltaic solar energy is method of converting solar energy into electrical energy using photovoltaic cells having semiconductors that exhibit photoelectric effects. Photovoltaic cells could use any of the semiconductors like silicon, selenium, gallium.

(l) Analog hybrid and IP systems in CCTV technology
Answer:
Monitoring and surveillance applications were traditionally done by analog CCTV technology.  Analog CCTV systems are generally maintenance intensive, offer no remote accessibility, and are notoriously difficult to integrate with other systems. IP systems in CCTV technology gets rid of these obstacles.  It provides ease of use, advanced search capabilities, simultaneous record and playback, no image degradation, improved compression and storage, and integration potential. IP CCTV technology allows us to take advantage of  many new technologies like LAN, Broadband, VPN etc.

(m) Various applications of Kevlar

Answer:
Originally developed as a replacement for steel in radial tires, Kevlar is now used in a wide range of applications.  The Kevlar tire technology has been applied to aeroplane, car, racing vehicle and truck tires. Some components of Kevlar are used in an array of rackets, such as tennis, badminton and squash rackets. Canoes and kayaks were also improved when Kevlar technology was applied there.

(n) Differences between Compact Disc (CD), Digital Versatile Disc (DVD) and Blu-ray Disc.
Answer:
The Compact Disc is an optical disc used to store digital data. A DVD is an optical disc storage media format, developed by Philips, Sony, Toshiba, and Panasonic. DVDs offer higher storage capacity than Compact Discs while having the same dimensions.  Blu-ray Disc is an optical disc storage medium designed to supersede the DVD format. The plastic disc is 120 mm in diameter and 1.2 mm thick, the same size as DVDs and CDs. Blu-ray Discs contain 25 GB per layer. Blue ray gets its name from the blue laser used to read the data. It allows information to be stored at a greater density as compared to red laser being used in DVD.

6. Comment on the following in about 50 words each:    5×5=25

(a) Functions of the World Customs Organisation (WCO)

Answer:
The World Customs Organization is the only intergovernmental organisation exclusively focused on Customs matters. WCO is recognised as the voice of the global Customs community. It works in the areas covering the development of global standards, the simplification and harmonisation of Customs procedures, trade supply chain security, the facilitation of international trade, the enhancement of Customs enforcement and compliance activities, anti-counterfeiting and piracy initiatives, public-private partnerships, integrity promotion, and sustainable global Customs capacity building programmes.

(b) Success of international intervention of Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast)

Answer:
UN Security council had authorised the intervention in Cote d’Ivoire to end the standoff created by the Gbagbo who had refused to give power after defeat in Presidential elections.  UN peacekeeping French forces intervened and the intervention in Côte d'Ivoire worked. Within a week, former president Laurent Gbagbo, who had refused to accept defeat in an election and plunged his country into a steadily escalating spiral of violence and repression, was in custody, and within two weeks the majority of his forces had surrendered or rallied to the new President's side.

(c) Strategic adopted by Colombia to eliminate its drug cartels
Answer:
Columbia has adopted a comprehensive strategy to eliminate drug cartels which involves reducing or eliminating corruption from the police force, judiciary and all the drug enforcement agencies. Several operations involving undercover agents were also undertaken to expose the financial network used by the drug mafia for money laundering. Columbia is also making international efforts to have a coordinated response to the menace of drug trafficking.

(d) World Food Programme (WFP) of the United Nations (UN)

Answer:
WFP is the United Nations frontline agency in the fight against global hunger. WFP is the food aid arm of the United Nations system. Food aid is one of the many instruments that can help to promote food security. The policies governing the use of World Food Programme food aid is oriented towards the objective of eradicating hunger and poverty. The ultimate objective of food aid is the elimination of the need for food aid.

(e) Sculpture of the broken chair in front of the UN building at Geneva

Answer:
Sculpture of the broken chair symbolises opposition to land mines and cluster bombs, and acts as a reminder to politicians and others visiting Geneva. The sculpture was erected by Handicap International and is a work by the Swiss artist Daniel Berset.

7. Why each of the following been in the news recently? (each answer in a sentence or two only);     2×10=20

(a) Tiangong – 1

Answer:
It is a Chinese space laboratory module,and is an experimental testbed to demonstrate the rendezvous and docking capabilities needed to support a space station complex.

(b) K-computer

Answer:
It is a supercomputer produced by Fujitsu at the RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science campus in Kobe, Japan. The K computer is based on distributed memory architecture.

(c) Gliese 581 g

Answer:
It is a hypothetical extrasolar planet of the red dwarf star Gliese 581, in the constellation of Libra. It is the sixth planet discovered in the Gliese 581 planetary system and the fourth in order of increasing distance from the star.

(d) MABEL robot

Answer:
It is believed to be the world’s fastest bipedal robot with knees. It is built with funding from the National Science Foundation and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, USA.

(e) Operation Shady Rat

Answer:
It is referred to the series of cyber attacks starting from mid 2006. It is characterized by McAfee as a five year targeted operation by one specific actor. It refers to targeting of several athletic organisations around the time of Summer 2008 Olympics.

(f) SAGA-220

Answer:
It is the fastest super computer of India developed by ISRO. Its speed is 220 teraflops.

(g) Billion Acts of Green

Answer:
The goal of Billion Acts of Green campaign is to reach a billion acts of environmental service and advocacy before Rio +20 to be held in 2012.

(h) L’Aquila earthquake
Answer:
Six scientists have been accused for manslaughter over the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake. Prosecutors allege the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake after studying hundreds of tremors that had shaken the city.
(i) OPERA detector at Gran Sasso
Answer:
Oscillation Project with Emulsion-Racking Apparatus is an experiment to detect neutrinos. OPERA researchers have observed muon neutrinos travelling apparently at faster than the speed of light.

(j) Saturn’s Titan

Answer:
Titan is the largest moon of Saturn and the second largest moon in the solar system. It is the only natural satellite known to have a dense atmosphere.

8. Why have the following been in the news recently? (each answer in a sentence or two only):     2×5=10

(a) ‘News International’ newspaper

Answer:
News International is the UK arm of Murdoch's global News Corp empire and publishes four British newspapers: the Times, the Sunday Times, the Sun and the News of the World, as well as the weekly Times Literary Supplement.

(b) Mustafa Abdul-Jalil

Answer:
He is the Chairman of the National Transitional Council of Libya, and as such serves as head of state in Libya's caretaker government which was formed as a result of the 2011 Libyan civil war.

(c) Abel Kirui

Answer:
Kenya's Abel Kirui is a marathon runner who retained his world championships title in emphatic fashion, recording the largest winning margin in championship history.

(d) Natalie Portman
Answer:
She is a hollywood actress who has won the Oscar for the best actress for her performance in the movie Black Swan.

(e) Nawaf Salam

Answer:
He is a Lebanese diplomat, academic, and jurist. He is currently serving as Lebanon's Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations in New York.

9. (a) List the requisites of a good table:
Present the following in a suitable tabular form:     5

In 1980 out of a total of 1750 workers of a factory, 1200 were members of a union. The number of women employed was 200 of which 175 did not belong to the union. In 1985 the number of union workers increased to 1580 of which 1290 were men. On the other hand the number of non-union workers fell down to 208 of which 180 were men. In 1990 there were 1800 employees who belonged to the union and 50 who did not belong to the union. Of all the employees in 1990, 300 were women of which only 8 did not belong to the union.
Answer:

Male Female

Union Non Union Union Non Union
1980 1175 375 25 175
1985 1290 180 290 28
1990 1508 42 292 8
(b) Draw an ogive for the following distribution. Read the median from the graph. How many students get between 60 and 72?

Marks No. Of Students
50-55 6
55-60 10
60-65 22
65-70 30
70-75 16
75-80 12
80-100 15
(c) From the following data calculate the missing frequency:    4

No. of tablets No. of Persons cured
4-8 11
8-12 13
12-16 16
16-20 14
20-24 ?
24-28 9
28-32 17
32-36 6
36-40 4
The average number of tablets to cure fever was 19.9
Answer:

No. of tablets Middle Point No. of Persons cured Product
4-8 6 11 66
8-12 10 13 130
12-16 14 16 224
16-20 18 14 252
20-24 22 x 22x
24-28 26 9 234
28-32 30 17 510
32-36 34 6 204
36-40 38 4 152

1772+22x/90+x = 19.9
1772 +22x =  1791 + 19.9x
2.1x = 19
x = 9
(d) Life-time of 400 tubes tested in a company is distributed as follows:

Life time (hours) No. of tubes
300-399 14
400-499 46
500-599 58
600-699 76
700-799 68
800-899 62
900-999 48
1000-1099 22
1100-1199 6
Determine :     4
(i)
Relative frequency of sixth class.
Answer: See Answer table below
Relative frequency of sixth class is = Frequency of that class/ Total frequency = 62/ 400 = 0.155 = 15.5%
(ii) Percentage of tubes whose life-time does not exceed 600 hours.
Answer:Percentage of tubes whose life-time does not exceed 600 hours = 29.5% from table below

(iii) Percentage of tubes whose life time is greater than or equal to 900 hours.
Answer:Percentage of tubes whose life time is greater than or equal to 900 hours = 19% from table below

(iv)
Percentage of tubes whose life time is at least 500 but less than 1000 hours.
Answer:Percentage of tubes whose life time is at least 500 but less than 1000 hours = (Less than 1000 hours – Less than 500 hours) / 400 = (372 – 60)/ 400 = 312/400 = 78%
 
Life time Less than Cumulative Fr Percentage More than Cumulative Fr Percentage No. of tubes
299.5-399.5 399.5 14 3.50% 299.5 400.00 100.00% 14
399.5-499.5 499.5 60.00 15.00% 399.5 386.00 96.50% 46
499.5-599.5 599.5 118.00 29.50% 499.5 340.00 85.00% 58
599.5-699.5 699.5 194.00 48.50% 599.5 282.00 70.50% 76
699.5-799.5 799.5 262.00 65.50% 699.5 206.00 51.50% 68
799.5-899.5 899.5 324.00 81.00% 799.5 138.00 34.50% 62
899.5-999.5 999.5 372.00 93.00% 899.5 76.00 19.00% 48
999.5-1099.5 1099.5 394.00 98.50% 999.5 28.00 7.00% 22
1099.5-1199.5 1199.5 400.00 100.00% 1099.50 6.00 1.50% 6

10. (a) A car travels 25 km at 25 kph, 25 km at 50 kph, and 25 km at 75 kph. Find the average speed of the car for the entire journey.
Answer:

Distance in km Speed in kph Time taken  in hr = Distance/ Speed

25 25 1.00

25 50 0.50

25 75 0.33
Total 75
1.83
Average Speed in kph Total Distance/ Total Time 40.91
(b) The mean of 200 items was 50. Later on it was found that two items were wrongly read as 92 and 8 instead of 192 and 88. Find the correct mean.
Answer:
Incorrect Total = 200*50 = 10000
Correct Total = 10000 + (192-92) + (88-8) = 10180
Correct Mean = 10180/ 200 = 50.9
(c) Students were asked how long it took them to walk to school on a particular morning. A cumulative frequency distribution was formed.
Time taken (minutes) c.f.
<5 28
<10 45
<15 81
<20 143
<25 280
<30 349
<35 374
<40 395
<45 400
(i) Draw a cumulative frequency curve.
(ii) Estimate how many students took less than 18 minutes.
(ii) 6% of students took x minutes or longer. Find x.    6

(d) An investor buys ` 1200 worth of shares in a company each month. During the first five months he bought the shares at a price of ` 10, ` 12, ` 15, ` 20 and ` 24 per share. After 5 months, what is the average price paid for the shares by him?    4
Answer:
Number of shares in first month = 1200/10 = 120
Number of shares in second month = 1200/12 = 100
Number of shares in third month = 1200/15 = 80
Number of shares in fourth month = 1200/20 = 60
Number of shares in fifth month = 1200/24 = 50
Total number of shares = 410
Total money spent = 1200*5 = 6000
Average price for shares = 6000/ 410 = 14.6

Monday, January 23, 2012

Understanding Typhoon

A typhoon is a violent tropical cyclone, in meteorological term, which is a low pressure system occurring in tropical oceans. The winds above the ground circulate around the centre counter-clockwise for a typhoon occurring in the northern hemisphere and clockwise for that occurring in the southern hemisphere. 

Atmospheric Pre-conditions for typhoons
 Several atmospheric ingredients must come together for a typhoon to form. Since a typhoon is just another term for hurricane, the same conditions apply for both. There are perhaps seven atmospheric conditions which, if met, could cause a typhoon to form. A pre-existing disturbance, warm ocean water, low atmospheric stability, sufficient Coriolis force, moist mid-atmosphere, and upper atmosphere divergence are all important factors for typhoon formation. These factors are important in that a tremendous amount of heat energy is transported from the tropics northward to the higher latitudes. The typhoon is a large heat engine, where great amounts of heat are being produced from the process of latent heat of condensation. This occurs as water vapour is being evaporated from the ocean surface and condensed into cloud droplets.

Mechanisms to cause typhoon Formation
If all of the pre-conditions are met, typhoon formation then becomes possible. There are several types of atmospheric disturbances that can cause a typhoon to develop. The most common mechanism to cause a typhoon to develop is the monsoon trough. This is an extension of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone where cyclonic spin has developed. The ITCZ is a trough of low pressure created by the convergence of the northeast and southeast trade winds. This “trade wind” trough does not contain the spin to initiate typhoon development. Typhoon is caused mostly by the monsoon trough in six of the seven hurricanes/typhoon formation basins of the world.
Another cause of typhoon formation is from the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT). The upper air low is cold in nature as compared to its surrounding environment. A typical low pressure centre that forms a typhoon starts at the lower levels and is warm compared to its environment. If a TUTT low remains over the warm ocean waters for several days, sometimes it gradually warms and takes on tropical characteristics. At this point the low “reaches” down to the surface from the upper atmosphere where the development process transforms.
Another cause of typhoon development is from a front which stalls over tropical waters. Inherently, a front has a cyclonic spin associated with it. If winds aloft become favorable with little wind shear, showers and storms could become more numerous and cause a typhoon to form.

Sunday, January 22, 2012

EFFECTS OF MAJOR DISASTERS

Disasters throughout  history have had significant impact on the numbers, health status and life style of populations.

¨     Deaths
¨     Severe injuries, requiring extensive treatments
¨     Increased risk of communicable diseases
¨     Damage to the health facilities
¨     Damage to the water systems
¨     Food shortage
¨     Population movements

Health problems common to all Disasters

¨     Social reactions
¨     Communicable diseases
¨     Population displacements
¨     Climatic exposure
¨     Food and nutrition
¨     Water supply and sanitation
¨     Mental health
¨     Damage to health infrastructure

India's Natural Disasters Proneness

On the basis of geographic and climatic considerations, India can be divided into 5 Zones according to its disaster proneness to natural disasters;
1.    Northern mountain region including foot hills; this region is prone to strong Snow Storms leading to Land slides and strong Cold waves and also is Earthquake prone belt with violent subterranean Volcanic activity.
2.    Indo-gangetic plains; heavy rains during monsoon make these plains vulnerable to Floods.
3.    Deccan plateau; a Drought prone area.
4.    The western desert; a Drought prone area.
5.    Coastal areas; they are prone to Sea erosion, Cyclones and Tidal waves

India’s Disaster Ridden  History
·       About 60% of India’s land mass is prone to Earth Quakes
·       Over 40 million Hectares are prone to Floods
·       Nearly 3 lakh  sq. km are at risk of Cyclones
·       The Earth quake in Bhuj killed 14,000 people
·       Cyclone in Orissa took away 10,000 lives.
·       Between 1990 and 2000 an average of about 3400 people lost their lives annually.
·       About 3 crore people were affected by Disasters every year.
·       About 17,000 people perished by the Tsunami on 26 Dec.04

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

EARTHQUAKES
Definition and Measurement

"An earthquake is a sudden motion or trembling of the ground produced by the abrupt displacement of rock masses".
Most earthquakes result from the movement of one rock mass past another in response to tectonic forces.

The focus is the point where the earthquake's motion starts,

The epicenter is the point on the earth's surface that is directly above the focus.

Earthquake Magnitude is a measure of the strength of an earthquake as calculated from records of the event made on a calibrated seismograph.

In 1935, Charles Richter first defined local magnitude, and the Richter scale is commonly used today to describe an
earthquake's magnitude.

Earthquake Intensity.
In contrast, earthquake intensity is a measure of the effects of an earthquake at a particular place. It is determined from observations of the earthquake's effects on people, structures and the earth's surface.

Among the many existing scales, the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale of 12 degrees, symbolized as MM, is frequently used 

Earthquake Hazards
Earthquake hazards can be categorized as either direct hazards or indirect hazards.
Direct Hazards
¨     · Ground shaking;
¨     · Differential ground settlement;
¨     · Soil liquefaction;
¨     · Immediate landslides or mud slides, ground lurching
       and avalanches;
¨     · Permanent ground displacement along faults;
¨     · Floods from tidal waves, Sea Surges & Tsunamis

Indirect Hazards
¨     · Dam failures;
¨     · Pollution from damage to industrial plants;
¨     · Delayed landslides.
Most of the damage due to earthquakes is the result of strong ground shaking. For large magnitude events, trembling has been
felt over more than 5 million sq. km. 

Site Risks
Some common site risks are:
(I) Slope Risks - Slope instability, triggered by strong shaking may cause landslides. Rocks or boulders can roll considerable distances.
(ii) Natural Dams - Landslides in irregular topographic areas may create natural dams which may collapse when they are filled.
This can lead to potentially catastrophic avalanches after strong seismic shaking.
(iii) Volcanic Activity - Earthquakes may be associated with potential volcanic activity and may occasionally be considered as precursory phenomena.
Explosive eruptions are normally followed by ash falls and/or pyroclastic flows, volcanic lava or mud flows, and volcanic gases.

CYCLONE.

The term "cyclone" refers to all classes of storms with low atmospheric pressure at the centre, are formed when an organized system of revolving winds, clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere, anti-clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, develops over tropical waters.
Cyclones are classified on the basis of the average speed of the wind near the centre of the system as follows:
 Wind Speed                            Classification
¨     Up to 61 km/hr                    Tropical Depression
¨     61 km/hr - 115 km/hr          Tropical Storm
¨     Greater than 115 km/hr       Hurricane
 
Hurricane.
A hurricane is a low pressure, large scale weather system which derives its energy from the latent heat of condensation of water vapor over warm tropical seas. A mature hurricane may have a diameter ranging from 150 to 1000 km with sustained wind speeds often exceeding 180 km/hr near the centre with still higher gusts.

A unique feature of a hurricane is the Eye. The eye provides a convenient frame of reference for the system, and can be tracked with radar, aircraft or satellite.

Classification
The Saffir/Simpson scale is often used to categorize hurricanes based on their wind speed and damage potential. Five categories of hurricanes are recognized:
¨     Minimal, Moderate, Extensive, Extreme & Catastrophic

The destructive potential of a hurricane is significant due to the high wind speeds, accompanying torrential rains which produce
flooding, and storm surges along the coastline
TSUNAMIS

Tsunamis are Ocean Waves produced by Earth Quakes or Underwater land slides.

The word is Japanese and means “Harbor Waves

Tsunami is actually a series of waves that can travel at speeds from 400-600 mph in the open ocean. As the waves approach the coast, their speed decreases, but their amplitude increases.

Unusual wave heights of 10-20 ft high can be very destructive and cause many deaths and injuries.

Most deaths caused by Tsunamis are because of Drowning.

Associated risks include
·       Flooding
·       Contamination of Drinking Water
·       Fires from ruptured gas lines and tanks
·       Loss of vital Community Infrastructure [police, fire, medical]
·       Areas of greatest risks are
-Less than 25 feet above sea level
-Within 1 mile of the shore line.
Environmental Conditions left by the Tsunamis may contribute to the transmission of the following diseases
From Food or Water
·       Diarrhea illnesses;  Cholera, Acute Diarrhea, Dysentery
·       Hepatitis-A, Hepatitis-E
·       Typhoid Fever
·       Food borne illnesses;Bacterial;Viral;Parasitic;Non-infections;
From Animals or Mosquitoes
        Leptospirosis, Plague, Malaria, J.E, Dengue, Rabies
Respiratory Diseases;    Avian flu, Influenza, Measles
EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR HOLOCAUST

The effects of nuclear holocaust will result into blasts,
heat storms, secondary fires, fire, ionizing radiation and fall outs.

These effects fall into 3 categories;

1). Immediate, 2). Short term and 3). Long term effects.

¨     The immediate effects include blast effects, heat effects, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) effects and radiation effects.

¨     The short term effects include problems connected with water supply, sanitation, food, dispersal of excreta, wastes and dead bodies, break down of vector control measures and outbreak of infections. Radioactive contamination of water and food are major concerns. The affected area creates a lot of other problems for the survivors and the rescue teams.

Major problem among survivors is of bone marrow depression resulting in leucopenia, which increases their susceptibility to infections.
 
¨     Long term effects; the knowledge about the long-term effects is still incomplete. Some well known effects include radiation injuries due to radiation fallout, suppression of body immunity, chronic infection and other associated illnesses.

Persistent radiation hazards will lead to prolonged contamination of water supply, increased ultraviolet radiation, climatic and ecological disturbances, psychological disturbances and genetic abnormalities.

Current World Concern

In the light of the above facts the current world concern about the use of nuclear weapons is justified.

The world already possess an estimated total of 30,000 megatons of nuclear weapons with a total explosive power 50-100 times greater than that of all the explosives used during the Second World War.

Even if 1% of the nuclear weapons now possessed are used on urban populations, they can cause more deaths in a few hours than during the entire period of the Second World War.

The fundamental aspects of Disaster Management Program

¨     Disaster Prevention
¨     Disaster preparedness
¨     Disaster response
¨     Disaster mitigation
¨     Rehabilitation
¨     Reconstruction

 3 Fundamental Aspects of Disaster Management
 
1.    Disaster response
 
2.    Disaster Preparedness
 
3.    Disaster Mitigation   


These 3 aspects of Disaster Management corresponds to the
2 phases in the Disaster Cycle, ie,

1, Risk Reduction Phase, before a Disaster
 
2. Recovery Phase, after a Disaster   

 DISASTER RESPONSE
 OBJECTIVES

¨     Appropriate application of current technology can prevent much of the death, injury, and economic disruption resulting from disasters
¨     Morbidity and mortality resulting from disasters differ according to the type and location of the event.
¨     In any disaster, prevention should be directed towards reducing

(1) Losses due to the disaster event itself
(2) Losses resulting from the Mismanagement of disaster relief.

Therefore, the public health objectives of disaster management can be stated as follows:

1.    Prevent unnecessary morbidity, mortality, and economic loss resulting directly from the disaster.

2.    Eliminate morbidity, mortality, and economic loss directly attributable to Mismanagement of disaster relief efforts.

Nature and Extent of the Problem

Morbidity and mortality, which result from a disaster situation, can be classified into four types:
1.    Injuries, 
2.    Emotional stress,
3.    Epidemics of diseases,
4.    Increase in indigenous diseases.

The relative numbers of deaths and injuries differ on the type of disaster.

Injuries usually exceed deaths in explosions, typhoons, hurricanes, fires, famines, tornadoes, and epidemics.

Deaths frequently exceed injuries in landslides, avalanches, volcanic eruptions, tidal waves, floods, and earthquakes.

Disaster victims often exhibit emotional stress or the "disaster shock" syndrome. The syndrome consists of successive stages of shock, suggestibility, euphoria and frustration.

Each of these stages may vary in extent and duration depending on other factors. 

Epidemics are included in the definition of disaster; however, they can also be the result of other disaster situations.

Diseases, which may be associated with disasters, include
¨     specific food and/or water bone illnesses
     (e.g., typhoid, gastroenteritis and cholera),
¨     vector bone illnesses
    (e.g., plague and malaria),
¨     diseases spread by person-to-person contact
     (e.g., hepatitis A and shigellosis)
¨     Diseases spread by the respiratory route
     (e.g., measles and influenza).


·       The current status of environmental sanitation, disease surveillance, and preventive medicine has led to a significant reduction in the threat of epidemics following disaster.
 
·       Immunization programs are rarely indicated as a specific post disaster measure. 

·       A disaster is often followed by an increase in the prevalence of diseases indigenous to the area due to the disruption of medical and other health facilities and programs.


Morbidity and Mortality from Mismanagement of Relief

Ideally, attempts to mitigate the results of a disaster would not add to the negative consequences;

However, there have been many instances in which inappropriate and/or incomplete management actions taken after a disaster contributed to unnecessary morbidity, mortality, and a waste of resources.

Many of the Causalities and much more of the Destruction occurring to natural disaster are due to ignorance and neglect on the part of the individuals and public authorities.

There is a plethora of literature describing the inappropriate actions taken to manage past disasters. Many of the same mismanagement problems tend to recur.
¨     Physicians and nurses have been sent into disaster areas in numbers far in excess of actual need.
¨     Medical and paramedical personnel have often been hampered by the lack of the specific supplies they need to apply their skills to the disaster situation.
¨     In some disasters, available supplies have not been inventoried until well after the disaster, resulting in the importation of material which is used or needed.

In a study of past disaster mismanagement problems and their causes, these problems were categorized as follows:

1.    Inadequate appraisal of damages
2.    Inadequate problem ranking
3.    Inadequate identification of resources
4.    Inadequate location of resources
5.    Inadequate transportation of resources
6.    Inadequate utilization of resources

HAM Radio

Amateur Radio popularly known as HAM Radio is primarily a hobby and a service in which participants, called “Amateur Radio Operators” or "HAMs," use various types of radio/ wireless communications equipment to communicate with other radio amateurs for public service, recreation and self-training. At the same time, the HAMs often support the communities and administrators with emergency and disaster communications at the time of need.
For operating / possessing a Radio Station, Amateur Radio Operators have to obtain license after qualifying the specified examination conducted by Ministry of Communications & IT, Government of India. The subjects of examination are: -
i)    Morse Code (Transmission & Reception)
ii)   Communication Procedure
iii)  Basic Electronics. Amateur Radio License is granted to the candidates qualified in the examination by the Wireless Planning & Coordination (WPC) wing of Ministry of Communications & IT, Govt. of India after verification of their antecedents.
In the aftermath of Super Cyclone, 1999, HAM Radio was found useful in establishing communication with the affected areas in which HAMs from other states participated in this activity. Based on the said experience, initiatives have been taken to train the volunteers in HAM Radio with technical assistance of National Institute of Amateur Radio (NIAR), Hyderabad in order to enable them to qualify in the prescribed examination and obtain the required license to operate HAM stations in our State.

DISASTER MANAGEMENT

Andhra Pradesh is exposed to cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts. A moderate to severe intensity cyclone can be expected to make landfall every two to three years. About 44 percent of the state is vulnerable to tropical storms and related hazards.
In India, the cyclones develop in the pre-monsoon (April to May) and post-monsoon seasons (October to December), but most of them tend to form in the month of November.
Cyclones on the east coast originate in the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea or the South China Sea, and usually reach the coastline of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal, which are the most vulnerable to these types of hazards. Two of the deadliest cyclones of this century, with fatalities of about 10,000 people in each case, took place in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh during October 1971 and November 1977 respectively. The super cyclone of Orissa in 1999 caused large scale damage to life and property.
Along the Andhra coast, the section between Nizampatnam and Machilipatnam is the most prone to storm surges. Vulnerability to storm surges is not uniform along Indian coasts. The following segments of the east coast of India are most vulnerable to high surges
1.     North Orissa, and West Bengal coasts.
2.     Andhra Pradesh coast between Ongole and Machilipatnam.
3.     Tamil Nadu coast, south of Nagapatnam.

The states bordering the Arabian Sea on the west coast are not completely safe either, as Kerala, Gujarat - and to a lesser extent Maharashtra - are also prone to cyclones. With a frequency of four cyclones per year, one of which usually becomes severe, the Bay of Bengal accounts for seven percent of the annual tropical cyclone activity worldwide.
Despite this relatively low percentage, the level of human and property loss that cyclones cause around the Bay is very high. Once the cyclones enter the mainland, they give way to heavy rains which often translate into floods, as it was the case with the damaging cyclone-induced floods in the Godavari delta, in August of 1986.
Many drought prone areas adjacent to coastal districts in eastern maritime states are thus vulnerable to flash floods originated by the torrential rains induced by the cyclonic depression. In addition to cyclones and its related hazards, monsoon depressions over the north and central areas of the Bay of Bengal move until reaching north and central India, including portions of Andhra Pradesh, bringing heavy to very heavy rains and causing floods in the inland rivers between June and September.
In Andhra traditionally, the flood problem had been confined to the flooding of smaller rivers. But the drainage problem in the coastal delta zones has worsened, multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards. A critical factor is maintenance of irrigation systems. On several occasions, deaths have been caused by breaches in tanks and canals as well as over-flooding caused by silting and growth of weeds.

Effect of Repeated Disasters
The regular occurrence of Disasters both Natural and Man made in Coastal Andhra Pradesh in India has had a series of repercussions on the state country’s Economy, its development policies and political equilibrium and daily life of millions of Indians.
Andhra Pradesh is battered by every kind of natural disaster: cyclones, floods, earthquakes and drought. The coastal region suffers repeated cyclones and floods. The 1977 cyclone and tidal wave, which resulted in great loss of life, attracted the attention of the central and state Governments of India and the international donor communities, as did those of 1979, 1990 and 1996. The floods in the Godavari and Krishna Rivers caused havoc in the East and West Godavari and Krishna districts.
Earthquakes in the recent past have occurred along and off the Andhra Pradesh coast and in regions in the Godavari river valley. Mild tremors have also hit the capital city of Hyderabad, for example in September 2000.
Social and economic life of AP's population is characterized by recurring natural disasters. The state is exposed to cyclones, storm surges, floods, and droughts. According to the available disaster inventories, AP is the state that has suffered the most from the adverse effects of severe cyclones. It has been estimated that about 44 percent of AP's total territory is vulnerable to tropical storms and related hazards, while its coastal belt is likely to be the most vulnerable region in India to these natural phenomena. Khamman district, in the Telengana region, is affected by monsoon floods, along with five districts in Coastal AP. Four districts in Rayalaseema and five in Telengana experience drought. Along the coastline, the section between Nizampatnam and Machilipatnam is the most prone to storm surges. The fertile Delta areas of the Godavari and the Krishna rivers, which contribute substantially to the state's economic prosperity, face flood and drainage problems, and more so in the aftermath of cyclones.
More than sixty cyclones have affected AP this century. The incidence of cyclones seems to have increased in the past decades, to the extent that severe cyclones have become a common event occurring every two to three years, repeatedly and severely affecting the state's economy while challenging its financial and institutional resources3. Almost2 9 million people are vulnerable to cyclones and their effects in Coastal AP, 3.3 million of who belong to communities located within five km of the seashore. The deadliest cyclone in the last twenty years took place in November 1977 killing about 10,000 people. More recently, the May 1990 cyclone, with a death toll close to 1,000 people, caused about US$1.25 billion in damage in ten districts, including the entire coast. Between 1977 and 1992, about 13,000 lives and 338,000 cattle were lost due to cyclones and floods, and nearly 3.3 million houses damaged.
May cyclones are relatively rare in the region, and only about 13 have affected AP in this month this century. However, when they badly hit the Delta areas, as it happened in 1979 in the Krishna district - where 80 percent of the casualties occurred - the population in danger may be higher than usual. May is rice harvesting season, and a good number of itinerant laborers come to the delta from less fertile areas of AP in search of work. Since they lack awareness of the area's most prevalent hazards, this migrant population is more vulnerable than the permanent delta residents. Similarly, entire families have come to the delta districts to engage in activities related to shrimp farming, which has taken off recently in the area. They are involved in the collection of fingerlings, living for several months a year in makeshift shelters along the marshes. The warnings may not reach them on time, and even when they do, their inexperience renders them highly vulnerable.
The Godavari and the Krishna rivers have well-defined stable courses, and their natural and man-made banks have usually been capable of carrying flood discharges, with the exception of their delta areas. Traditionally, the flood problem in AP had been confined o the spilling of smaller rivers and the submersion of marginal areas surrounding Kolleru Lake. However, the drainage problem in the delta zones of the coastal districts has worsened, thereby multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards. Moreover, when a storm surge develops, as it was the case during the severe November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 cyclones, threats to humans and property multiply as the sea water may inundate coastal areas which are already being subjected to torrential rains. Finally, a critical additional factor affecting the flood management and the irrigation systems is the lack of maintenance. On several occasions, such as the May 1979 cyclone, most of the deaths were occasioned by breaches to the chains of tanks and canals, and over-flooding due in part to the choking of drains by silting and growth of weeds.

Nearly half of AP vulnerable to floods

Andhra Pradesh witnesses severe cyclones almost every two to three years. About 44 per cent of the State is vulnerable to tropical storms and related hazards. The coastal belt is said to be the most vulnerable region in India to these natural phenomena.

Cyclones on the east coast originate in the Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea or the South China Sea, and usually reach the coastline of Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and West Bengal, which are the most vulnerable to these types of hazards. Two of the deadliest cyclones of this century, with fatalities of about 10,000 people in each case, took place in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh during October 1971 and November 1977 respectively. The super cyclone of Orissa in 1999 caused large-scale damage to life and property.

Along the Andhra coast, the section between Nizampatnam and Machilipatnam is the most prone to storm surges and the loss of human and property caused by cyclones around the Bay is very high. Once the cyclones enter the mainland, they give way to heavy rains which often translate into floods. This season is no exception. Heavy rains coupled with inflows from Karnataka induced floods causing some damage to crops in Mahbubnagar, Adilabad, Prakasam district, Vijayawada, Krishna and Guntur.

Many drought-prone areas adjacent to coastal districts in eastern maritime states are thus vulnerable to flash floods originated by the torrential rains induced by the cyclonic depression. In addition to cyclones and its related hazards, monsoon depressions over the north and central areas of the Bay of Bengal move until reaching north and central India, including parts of Andhra Pradesh, bringing heavy to very heavy rains and causing floods in the inland rivers between June and September.

In Andhra traditionally, the flood problem has been confined to the flooding of smaller rivers. But the drainage problem in the coastal delta zones has worsened, multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards. A critical factor is maintenance of irrigation systems. On several occasions, deaths were caused by breaches in tanks and canals as well as over-flooding caused by silting and growth of weeds.
Effect of repeated disasters
The regular occurrence of disasters both natural and man-made in Coastal region has had a series of repercussions on the State’s economy, its development policies and political equilibrium and daily life of millions of people. The coastal region suffers repeated cyclones and floods.

The 1977 cyclone and tidal wave, which resulted in great loss of life, attracted the attention of the Central and State Governments and the international donor communities, as did those of 1979, 1990 and 1996. The floods in the Godavari and Krishna Rivers caused havoc in the East and West Godavari and Krishna districts.

Along the coastline, the section between Nizampatnam and Machilipatnam is the most prone to storm surges. The fertile delta areas of the Godavari and the Krishna rivers, which contribute substantially to the State's economic prosperity, face flood and drainage problems, and more so in the aftermath of cyclones.
More than sixty cyclones hit AP this century.

The incidence of cyclones seems to have increased in the past decades, to the extent that severe cyclones have become a common event occurring every two to three years, repeatedly and severely affecting the state's economy.

May cyclones are relatively rare in the region, and only about 13 affected AP in this century. However, when they badly hit the delta areas, as it happened in 1979 in the Krishna district - where 80 per cent of the casualties occurred - the population may be in higher danger than usual. May is the rice harvesting season, and a good number of itinerant laborers come to the delta from less fertile areas of AP in search of work.

Since they lack awareness of the area's most prevalent hazards, this migrant population is more vulnerable than the permanent delta residents. Traditionally, the flood problem in AP had been confined to the spilling of smaller rivers and the submersion of marginal areas.

However, the drainage problem in delta zones of the coastal districts has worsened, thereby multiplying the destructive potential of cyclones and increasing flood hazards.

Moreover, when a storm surge develops, as it was the case during the November 1977, May 1990 and November 1996 cyclones, threats to humans and property multiply as the sea water inundates coastal areas which are already being subjected to torrential rains.